Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 11th, 2024

Adrian Markiewicz • December 11, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

December 11, 2024


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.


The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.


In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.


A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.


In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.


CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.


With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Understanding Payment Frequency

By Adrian Markiewicz • April 23, 2025
You’ve most likely heard that there are two certainties in life; death and taxes. Well, as it relates to your mortgage, the single certainty is that you will pay back what you borrow, plus interest. With that said, the frequency of how often you make payments to the lender is somewhat up to you! The following looks at the different types of payment frequencies and how they impact your mortgage. Here are the six payment frequency types Monthly payments – 12 payments per year Semi-Monthly payments – 24 payments per year Bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year Weekly payments – 52 payments per year Accelerated bi-weekly payments – 26 payments per year Accelerated weekly payments – 52 payments per year Options one through four are straightforward and designed to match your payment frequency with your employer. So if you get paid monthly, it makes sense to arrange your mortgage payments to come out a few days after payday. If you get paid every second Friday, it might make sense to have your mortgage payments match your payday. However, options five and six have that word accelerated before the payment frequency. Accelerated bi-weekly and accelerated weekly payments accelerate how fast you pay down your mortgage. Choosing the accelerated option allows you to lower your overall cost of borrowing on autopilot. Here’s how it works. With the accelerated bi-weekly payment frequency, you make 26 payments in the year. Instead of dividing the total annual payment by 26 payments, you divide the total yearly payment by 24 payments as if you set the payments as semi-monthly. Then you make 26 payments on the bi-weekly frequency at the higher amount. So let’s use a $1000 payment as the example: Monthly payments formula: $1000/1 with 12 payments per year. A payment of $1000 is made once per month for a total of $12,000 paid per year. Semi-monthly formula: $1000/2 with 24 payments per year. A payment of $500 is paid twice per month for a total of $12,000 paid per year. Bi-weekly formula: $1000 x 12 / 26 with 26 payments per year. A payment of $461.54 is made every second week for a total of $12,000 paid per year. Accelerated bi-weekly formula: $1000/2 with 26 payments per year. A payment of $500 is made every second week for a total of $13,000 paid per year. You see, by making the accelerated bi-weekly payments, it’s like you end up making two extra payments each year. By making a higher payment amount, you reduce your mortgage principal, which saves interest on the entire life of your mortgage. The payments for accelerated weekly payments work the same way. It’s just that you’d be making 52 payments a year instead of 26. By choosing an accelerated option for your payment frequency, you lower the overall cost of borrowing by making small extra payments as part of your regular payment schedule. Now, exactly how much you’ll save over the life of your mortgage is hard to nail down. Calculations are hard to do because of the many variables; mortgages come with different amortization periods and terms with varying interest rates along the way. However, an accelerated bi-weekly payment schedule could reduce your amortization by up to three years if maintained throughout the life of your mortgage. If you’d like to look at some of the numbers as they relate to you and your mortgage, please don’t hesitate to connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 16th, 2025

By Adrian Markiewicz • April 16, 2025
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario April 16, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented. Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly. Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canada’s exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness. In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation. Inflation was 2.3% in March, lower than in February but still higher than 1.8% at the time of the January MPR. The higher inflation in the last couple of months reflects some rebound in goods price inflation and the end of the temporary suspension of the GST/HST. Starting in April, CPI inflation will be pulled down for one year by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Lower global oil prices will also dampen inflation in the near term. However, we expect tariffs and supply chain disruptions to push up some prices. How much upward pressure this puts on inflation will depend on the evolution of tariffs and how quickly businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. Short-term inflation expectations have moved up, as businesses and consumers anticipate higher costs from trade conflict and supply disruptions. Longer term inflation expectations are little changed. Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Our focus will be on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. This means we will support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled. Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 4, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR on July 30, 2025. Read the April 16th, 2025 Monetary Report